Is a home loan lending crackdown on the horizon?

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The federal treasurer has given the strongest indication yet that a home loan crackdown is coming, stating that “carefully targeted and timely adjustments” may be necessary to avoid troubled waters. So what could a potential lending crackdown look like?

Lending standards and fast-rising property prices have been hot topics of late.

Interest rates are at record-low levels, and the typical Australian home has seen its value increase more than 18% over the past year – the fastest annual pace of growth since the late 1980s.

It’s a recipe that’s making financial regulators a touch worried that some homebuyers are starting to stretch themselves too thin and borrow more debt than they can safely afford.

So federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg recently met with the Council of Financial Regulators – which includes APRA, ASIC, the Australian Treasury and the RBA – to discuss the state of the housing market.

“We must be mindful of the balance between credit and income growth to prevent the build-up of future risks in the financial system,” Mr Frydenberg said in a statement.

“Carefully targeted and timely adjustments are sometimes necessary. There are a range of tools available to APRA to deliver this outcome.”

What could this possible crackdown look like?

Here’s an interesting stat for you: almost 22% of Australians have a mortgage debt that’s more than six times higher than their annual income, according to the latest data from APRA.

That’s up from 16% just one year ago.

The fact APRA mentions that particular stat gives us a pretty good clue as to what one possible lending crackdown measure could be.

“Most analysts expect that this time, APRA will target debt-to-income ratios, probably by limiting the proportion of loans that can be made above six times an applicant’s household income,” explains the ABC.

It’s also worth noting that Mr Frydenberg and APRA are not the only ones to publicly indicate that change could be on the horizon – the RBA expressed similar concerns about the increase in housing prices and housing debt just days ago, too.

“Even though the banks have strong balance sheets and lending standards are being maintained, there is a risk that in this environment, households will become increasingly indebted,” RBA assistant governor Michele Bullock wrote.

“A high level of debt could pose risks to the economy in the event of a shock to household incomes or a sharp decline in housing prices. Whether or not there is need to consider macro-prudential tools to address these risks is something we are continually assessing.”

Want to know how a potential lending crackdown might affect you?

It’s worth reiterating that we still have very limited information available about what financial regulators have in mind for any potential lending crackdowns.

What we can do, however, is help you assess your potential debt-to-income ratio on any property purchase you currently have in mind. And we can also help you determine your borrowing capacity in the current lending landscape.

So if you’d like to find out more, get in touch today. We’d be more than happy to run you through it all in more detail according to your personal circumstances.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Top 5 property investor trends for 2021-22

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With house prices going gangbusters in the first half of 2021, is it still a good time to buy property? The majority of investors think so, according to the latest annual survey. And investors have their sights set on one city in particular.

The 2021 PIPA Property Investor Sentiment Survey, which gathered insights from 800 property investors across the country in August, found more than 76% of investors believed property prices in their state or territory would increase over the next 12 months.

That’s up strongly from 41% this time last year, when COVID-19 had some investors a touch nervous.

“When we think back to last year, which was a time of much fear and uncertainty, it’s clear that property investors and the market, in general, has weathered that turbulent period better than anyone dared to hope,” said PIPA Chairman Peter Koulizos.

Here are the top five trends the PIPA survey identified.

1. Most investors believe it’s a good time to invest

This year’s survey found that nearly 62% of investors believe that now is a good time to invest in residential property, which is a tad down from 67% in 2020.

PIPA says that dip in confidence may be due to the high property price growth this year as well as significant lockdowns taking place at the time of the survey.

2. The sunshine state looks to be the property hotspot

This year’s survey produced the biggest ever margin when it came to the location investors believe offers the best potential over the next year.

“A staggering 58% believe the sunshine state [Queensland] offers the best property investment prospects over the next year – up from 36% last year,” Mr Koulizos says.

New South Wales came a distant second at 16% (down from 21%), and Victoria was third at 10% (significantly down from 27%).

Brisbane also beat its capital city counterparts, with 54% of investors believing it has the rosiest outlook.

Mr Koulizos says the boost could be to do with Brisbane being named host of the 2032 Olympic Games, and significant upcoming infrastructure spending.

“All of these factors, as well as the affordability of property in southeast Queensland and strong interstate migration, are some of the reasons why investors are so optimistic about market conditions there,” he adds.

3. Regional and coastal markets continue to grow in demand

While investors still believe metropolitan markets offer the best investment prospects at nearly 50% (down from 61% in 2020), regional and coastal markets are closing the gap.

A quarter of property investors now favour regional markets (up from 22%), while 21% of survey respondents have their eye on coastal areas (up strongly from 12% last year).

4. Fewer investors looking to sell

The lingering impacts of the global health emergency – as well as robust price growth over the past year no doubt – mean fewer investors (59%) are looking to sell a property this year compared to last year (71%).

“Part of the reason for the uplift in property prices over the past year has been the continued low levels of supply in most locations around the nation,” Mr Koulizos notes.

“With a decrease in the number of investors indicating they intend to sell over the short-term, it seems unlikely that this boom market cycle is going to change anytime soon.”

5. Almost three-quarters of property investors use a mortgage broker

Just 17% of respondents secured their last investment loan directly via a bank, while 4% used a non-bank lender.

The vast majority (72%) of respondents secured their loan through a broker, a slight increase on last year’s figure of 71%.

And 72% of respondents said they’d use a broker to finance their next investment loan.

It just goes to show that it doesn’t matter how far you are on your property journey – whether you’re a first home buyer, refinancer or savvy property investor – we can help you every step of the way.

So if you’re looking to add to your property portfolio, looking for a change of scene, or keen to crack into the market, get in touch today.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Refinancing figures are on a record-breaking run: here’s why

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With interest rates at record low levels, the number of homeowners refinancing skyrocketed to an all-time high in July. Today we’ll run you through why so many people are refinancing, and why you should consider doing so too.

We’re currently seeing more people refinance their home loans than ever before, and the latest ABS figures out this week prove we’re not imagining things.

Refinanced home loans reached an all-time high of $17.2 billion in July, which is a 6% increase on June.

It’s also more than double the value that was refinanced exactly two years prior in July 2019.

So why are homeowners refinancing in record numbers?

For starters, the RBA cash rate is at an all-time low of 0.1% following six rate cuts in three years.

As such, competition amongst lenders is fierce, with many offering record-low home loan rates in a bid to win over as many customers as possible.

In fact, RateCity reports the number of variable rates under 2% on its database has jumped from 28 to 46 in just two months.

Borrowers are also opting to lock in their interest rate too, says the ABS, following reports that lenders have started increasing the rates on 3-5 year fixed-rate loans.

“Borrowers are seeking out lower interest rates, particularly for fixed-rate loans, and cashback deals across a large number of major and non-major lenders,” says ABS head of Finance and Wealth, Katherine Keenan.

COVID-19 is likely increasing the number of homeowners refinancing, too.

With many households and businesses around the country doing it tough right now, one simple way to reduce your monthly mortgage repayments is by refinancing.

How we help you refinance the right way

Now, fixed-rate loans and cashback deals might look super appealing at first glance, but they might not always be the best fit for your situation.

And that’s why it helps to have someone like us in your corner.

We can help you go through the fine print, fees and limitations that might exist within these loan options.

We can also help you determine whether a fixed, variable or split loan is better suited to your needs.

The other thing we’re great at is negotiating with your lender.

Your current lender won’t automatically give you their lowest rate going. You’ve got to ask them for it.

And you’ve also got to make it clear that if they don’t reduce your interest rate, you’re willing to find another lender who will.

This can be both intimidating, not to mention time-consuming and frustrating if they don’t want to play ball.

But lucky for you, we can do the leg-work for you.

So if you haven’t refinanced in the past few years, get in touch with us today and we could help you save thousands of dollars in interest repayments on your mortgage.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

How much extra will your mortgage cost when interest rates rise?

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After 18 straight RBA cash rate cuts it can be easy to dismiss the notion that interest rates might rise again. But if the cash rate returned to mid-2019 levels, how much extra would an average new mortgage holder expect to pay each month? Let’s take a look.

They say what goes up, must come down.

But does what goes down, have to come up? Well, the big banks think so – and sooner than many expect.

While the RBA held the official cash rate at 0.10% this month – and reaffirmed its position that it does not expect to lift the cash rate until 2024 – there is growing speculation the next cash rate hike could come as early as late 2022.

In June, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac predicted a rate hike around late 2022 to early 2023. In fact, they expect the official cash rate to hit 1.25% in the third quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Meanwhile, NAB this week hiked its 2-,3- and 4-year fixed rates by up to 0.10% for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest.

Banks can increase fixed rates as a way of heading off potential RBA rate hikes. Generally, the shorter the term of the fixed-rate that’s increased (ie. if 2-year fixed rates are increased), the sooner a bank may believe the next rate hike will be.

So if the big banks’ economists are onto something here, how much extra money should you be factoring into your monthly mortgage repayments if the official cash rate rises to 1.25% by 2023/24?

How much extra the average mortgage holder could expect to pay

The first thing to note is that the last time the RBA’s cash rate target was at 1.25% was June 2019 – so not that long ago (but boy, was it a different world back then!).

Modelling from Canstar, published on Domain, shows the average variable mortgage rate would lift from 3.21% to 4.36%, based on the current margin between the two rates.

Now, if you took out a $500,000 loan tomorrow, and the cash rate hit 1.25% in 2024, that modelling estimates your monthly repayments would increase $300 to $2464 per month.

ABC News modelling covers a similar scenario, with repayments up $324 per month.

That’s despite reducing your remaining loan balance to $468,770 after three years of repayments, and assuming the banks only add on the cash rate increase – and not any extra.

And then there’s of course the possibility that further RBA cash rate increases could soon follow.

If, for example, the average variable loan rate increased to 7.04% in 2031, where it was just a decade ago in 2011, Canstar estimates that same borrower who took out a $500,000 loan would pay $900 more in monthly repayments than they do now – even after a full decade’s worth of repayments.

We can run you through your options

It’s hard to imagine that interest rates could rise from the comfort of the current record low cash rate.

In fact, you have to go back as far as November 2010 to when the RBA last increased the cash rate (to 4.75%). We’ve had a run of 18 straight cuts since then.

But the big banks’ economists aren’t basing their modelling, predictions and fixed-term rate increases on nothing – and it pays to pay attention.

So if you’re worried about what rate increases could mean for your household budget in the coming years, get in touch with us today and we can run you through a number of options.

That might include fixing your interest rate for two, three, four or five years, or just fixing part of your mortgage (but not all of it).

Every household is different – it’s our job to help you find the right mortgage option for you!

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

“Tide turning on interest rates”: CBA hikes fixed rates

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Australia’s biggest bank has hiked its three-year fixed rate for owner-occupiers in a further sign that “the tide is turning on interest rates”. So if you’ve been thinking about fixing your interest rate, it could be high time to do so.

Now, we’re not normally ones to write articles about the interest rate movements of particular products with particular lenders.

But we felt this one was significant given that the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) is the nation’s biggest home lender, with a market share of about 25%.

CBA has increased both its three- and four-year fixed rates for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest by 0.05%, as well as some interest-only loans by 0.10%.

“For anyone still on the fence about fixing their home loan rate, this is another example of the tide turning on interest rates,” Canstar research expert Mitch Watson says.

And we can’t say we weren’t warned.

In March, ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said fixed-mortgage rates had already reached their lowest point, or close to it, as lenders began lifting their four-year fixed rate products.

Furthermore, Canstar research shows 38% of lenders have increased at least one fixed rate over the past two months.

Why are fixed rates moving upwards if the RBA hasn’t lifted the cash rate?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has repeatedly said the official cash rate isn’t likely to be increased until 2024 at the earliest.

But given that’s now within three years, the banks are beginning to adjust their three- to four-year fixed rates to head off those potential RBA rate hikes.

“The money market is already factoring in [RBA rate] rises,” explains AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.

“That’s not having much of an impact on two-year rates yet. But as we go through the course of the year, the possibility of rate hikes will start to impact shorter rates as well.”

So what’s next?

Well, when CBA makes a move, it’s not uncommon for a number of other lenders to follow suit.

So if you’ve been umming and ahhing about fixing your rate, then it’s definitely worth getting in touch with us sooner rather than later.

We can run you through a number of different options, including fixing your interest rate for two, three, four or five years, or just fixing a part of your mortgage (but not all of it).

If you’d like to know more about this – or any of the other topics raised in this article – then get in touch today.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.