Brace yourselves: a May rate hike might be coming next week

, , , ,

The chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifting the official cash rate on Tuesday just increased dramatically after figures showed the cost of living jumped 5.1% over the past year – the highest annual increase in more than 20 years.

Economists around the country say the unexpectedly high jump in inflation means a May rate hike is now on the cards when the RBA board meets on Tuesday.

“Expect the RBA to start hiking next week. First hike should be +0.4%,” said AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver.

ANZ Bank meanwhile immediately called for the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate to 0.25%.

“A cash rate target of 0.1% is inappropriate against this backdrop,” said ANZ head of Australian economics David Plank.

So what’s going on?

Cost of living – aka the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – rose 2.1% in the March 2022 quarter and 5.1% annually, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data released on Wednesday.

According to the AFR, market economists were tipping headline inflation to jump to 4.6% year-on-year, so this has smashed those expectations.

ABS Head of Prices Statistics Michelle Marquardt said a combination of soaring petrol prices, strong demand for home building, and the rise in tertiary education costs were the primary factors driving up inflation.

It’s also worth noting that the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation – underlying inflation – which strips out the most extreme price moves, came in at 3.7%.

That’s now well above the 2-3% target range the RBA has previously stated was a key measure for triggering a cash rate hike.

If cost of living is up, why would the RBA increase rates next month?

High inflation is bad because it means the real value of your money has dropped and you can buy less goods and services than you could previously.

High inflation also has a habit of getting out of control, because one of the drivers of inflation is people expecting inflation.

Economists would argue that raising interest rates now is a hit we have to take to ensure we don’t end up with runaway inflation (short term pain trumps long term disaster).

Higher interest rates cool inflation in a number of ways, but one of the main ways they can actually save you money right now is via the exchange rate.

If the RBA doesn’t raise rates, investors will likely decide they can get better returns elsewhere around the globe, thereby lowering demand for our currency.

And if Australia’s exchange rate falls, the cost of imported goods, including the oil you fuel your car with, would go up even higher.

So it’s a tough pill to swallow for mortgage holders, but inflation can get out of hand if left unchecked. Prime examples include high inflation in Australia in the 1980s, and more recently Zimbabwe.

What does this mean for your mortgage repayments?

Well, if the RBA increases the official cash rate on Tuesday, as many economists are now predicting, unless you’re on a fixed rate mortgage, it’s likely the banks will follow suit and increase the interest rate on your home loan.

How much your repayments will go up each month will depend on a number of factors, including if the RBA increases the cash rate to 0.25% or 0.5%, how your bank responds, and the size of your mortgage.

If you’re worried about what interest rate rises might mean for your monthly budget, feel free to get in touch with us today to explore some options, which could include refinancing or locking in a fixed rate ahead of any other future RBA cash rate hikes.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

How to avoid becoming a victim of underquoting

, , , , ,

It’s the hope that kills you. Just ask Carlton fans, NSW Blues supporters, Wallabies sufferers, and hopeful homebuyers who have fallen victim to underquoting. Obviously, you can’t change your footy team, but you can follow these tips to avoid the sketchy real estate practice.

If it hasn’t happened to you, it’s probably happened to someone you know.

You find a dream home that appears within your budget, you get your finance pre-approved, you get your hopes up, and … you get blown out of the water come auction day because the agent has underquoted the property.

But hang in there – all is not lost, as we’ll touch upon below.

What is underquoting?

Underquoting is the misleading practice of advertising a property with a price guide that suggests to hopeful buyers that it could sell below market value, or for less than what the agent knows the vendor will accept.

Accusations of underquoting have been rife in recent times, as national property prices have soared 24% over the past year alone.

Now, there’s no doubt that some agents out there have been intentionally underquoting properties to drum up interest. But not always.

Real Estate Buyers Agents Association (REBAA) president Cate Bakos says on many occasions selling agents get blamed unfairly for their reluctance to predict a strong competitive result, and in many circumstances, vendors exercise their right to change their price expectations without prior consultation with their agent.

“Underquoting is amplified by a rising market,” adds Ms Bakos.

Which means as property prices peak in Sydney and Melbourne, and the rest of the country starts to follow a similar trend, less underquoting should occur.

Why do agents underquote a property?

The main reason vendors and agencies underquote, explains Ms Bakos, is based on the belief that an underquoted property will attract more prospective buyers.

It’s hoped that these buyers will fall in love with the property so much that they’ll find a way to compete against more cashed-up buyers, helping to push the property’s final price up in the process.

“The reality is that many buyers find themselves shortlisting properties that are beyond their financial constraints, and this can lead to disappointment, wasted expenditure for building reports and due diligence, and lost opportunity,” says Ms Bakos.

Isn’t underquoting illegal?

Ms Bakos said while price guide legislation varied between states and territories, the problem was relatively endemic in many cities across the nation.

She said while underquoting was illegal, there were still many legal loopholes that existed in current legislation, particularly in Victoria.

“In Victoria for instance, vendors are not required to state their reserve price for an auction until moments before the auction,” says Ms Baokes.

“And some offending agencies take advantage of this by pitching the property at a price lower than that of a reasonable price expectation or a realistically anticipated reserve.”

How to avoid becoming a victim of underquoting

Rather than rely on the price guide the real estate agent gives you, do your own homework.

You can do this by looking at comparable sales within the last month or two (on websites such as Domain and realestate.com.au), and compare like-for-like properties and locations.

“It’s an approximation, but it’s more helpful than living in the past and working off older, unreliable sales,” adds Ms Bakos.

Here are the REBAA’s other top tips to avoid becoming a victim of underquoting:

1. Compare comparable properties by location, land size and condition.

2. Spend the months leading up to active bidding time (while obtaining finance pre-approval) to inspect, inspect and inspect as many properties and neighbourhoods as you can.

3. Look at other similar properties in the area and see what the agent’s initially-published estimate price range was; what the reserve price was; and what it finally sold for.

4. Consider consulting and engaging a REBAA-accredited buyer’s agent to take care of the process so you can “buy with confidence.”

And last but not least, don’t forget to get in touch with us in advance to get your finance pre-approved.

That way, come crunch time, you can spend less time on your finance application, and more time doing your homework to make sure the properties you’ve got your heart set on haven’t been underquoted.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

What’s your debt-to-income ratio? And why do lenders care about it?

, , , ,

New data from the lending watchdog reveals almost one in four new mortgages are risky. How are they deemed risky? Well, it’s got something to do with your debt-to-income ratio, which we’ll explain in this week’s article.

Your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio might sound complicated, but it’s really very simple to work out.

Basically, your DTI is a measurement used by lenders that compares your total debt to your gross household income.

The formula is: total debt / gross income = debt-to-income ratio.

So if you’re seeking a $700,000 home loan (and have no other debt), and you have $160,000 in gross household income, your DTI is 4.375 – a ratio most lenders would be very comfortable with.

So why do lenders care about your DTI?

Well, December quarter data just released by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) shows 24.4% of new mortgages have a DTI ratio of 6 or higher.

At the 6+ ratio, APRA (aka the banking watchdog) deems these loans as risky.

And they’re keen to see the percentage of these loans that lenders approve start to come down.

That’s because they’ve been steadily on the rise for a while now.

In the September 2021 quarter, for example, new mortgages with a DTI of 6 or higher were at 23.8%, while in the December 2020 quarter it was at just 17.3%.

“However, the rate of growth in the [most recent] quarter slowed,” APRA points out (probably with a sigh of relief) in their latest release.

So why has the percentage of risky loans recently risen?

The recent rise in high DTIs has most likely got a lot to do with the phenomenal price growth (and resulting FOMO!) we’ve seen across the country over the past 12-18 months.

In fact, new data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that in the 12 months to December 2021, residential property prices rose 23.7% – the strongest annual growth ever recorded.

The mean price of residential dwellings in Australia now stands at $920,100.

That’s a jump of $44,000 from the September quarter ($876,100), and a jump of $176,000 in 12 months from the December 2020 quarter ($744,000).

So with property prices increasing at such a sharp rate, and people stretching themselves to their limits to buy into the market, it has resulted in upwards pressure on high DTI percentages.

The good news is that as the property market starts to cool, so too should the growth rate of risky DTIs, which is what APRA alluded to above.

So how much can you safely afford to borrow?

There’s a fine line between maximising your investment opportunities and stretching yourself beyond your limits.

Especially so as RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe this week warned Australians to start preparing for higher interest rates.

And that’s where we come in.

It’s not only important to stress-test what you can borrow in the current financial landscape, but also against any upcoming headwinds that are tipped to hit borrowers – such as interest rate rises and possible tightening lending standards.

But hey! Everyone’s financial situation is different. Some lenders will take into account your particular circumstances and accept a loan application where a DTI is higher than 6.

So if you’d like to find out your borrowing capacity and options, get in touch today. We’d love to sit down with you and help you map out a plan.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Fixed rates on the rise, as CommBank tips a June cash rate hike

, , , , , , , ,

Hold onto your hats, things are about to get a little bumpy. Economists from Australia’s biggest bank are predicting the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate as early as June – and we’re already seeing fixed interest rates increase significantly.

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) economists have brought forward their forecasted Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate hike from August to June, making it the earliest prediction amongst the big four banks.

We’ll go into more detail on why CBA has brought forward their prediction below, but first something a little more concrete: we’ve definitely noticed fixed rates trending up in recent months.

Fixed rate hikes

For example, back in November, for a $700,000 loan at 80% loan-to-value ratio, a two-year fixed rate with one particular lender was 1.84%.

That rate has since gone up to 3.04% – a staggering increase.

While not every lender has increased fixed rates so significantly, we are seeing them go up across the board.

So if you have been umming and ahhing about fixing your rate lately, you’ll want to get in touch with us sooner rather than later.

Because while most lenders have recently reduced their variable rates to compensate a little, with news now that the cash rate is being tipped to increase mid-year, you can expect variable rates to increase with the cash rate.

So why has CBA brought forward their forecast to June?

Ok, so back to CBA’s June cash-rate hike prediction and why they’ve brought it forward from August.

In a nutshell, CBA senior economist Gareth Aird is anticipating inflation to be a lot stronger than the RBA is forecasting.

As a result, Mr Aird believes this will lead to a rise in the cash rate to 0.25% at the June board meeting (currently it’s at a record-low 0.1%).

“We are very comfortable with our expectation that the quarter-one 2022 underlying inflation data will be a lot stronger than the RBA’s forecast,” explains Mr Aird.

And here’s the thing: it’s not the only cash rate hike CBA is predicting the RBA will make over the next 12 months.

Mr Aird is expecting a further three rate increases over 2022 to take the cash rate to 1%, with another move to 1.25% in early 2023.

That’s five cash rate hikes over 12 months!

Get in touch today to explore your options

Believe it or not, there are more than 1 million mortgage holders out there who have never experienced a rate rise (the last RBA cash rate hike was in November 2010).

And if the CBA’s prediction of five rate hikes over the next 12 months proves right, then some households will be in for a bumpy ride as they face hundreds of dollars in extra mortgage repayments each month.

So if you’re keen to act before the RBA increases the official cash rate, get in touch with us today. We’d love to sit down with you and help you work through your options in advance.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Seismic shift: two major banks hike fixed interest rates

, , , , ,

Are the days of ultra-low fixed interest rates over? It’s looking increasingly so, with two major banks increasing their fixed rates this week. So if you’ve been thinking about fixing your mortgage lately, it could be time to consider doing so.

Do you know how when one tectonic plate shifts, others around it soon follow?

Well, in the past week, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and then Westpac hiked the interest rates on their 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year fixed-rate home loans by 0.1% (for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest).

Meanwhile, ING also lifted its fixed rates on 2- to 5-year terms by 0.05% to 0.2%.

For mortgage-holders, it’s a clear ol’ rumbling sign that the days of super-low fixed interest rates are coming to an end.

So why are banks increasing fixed interest rates?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has repeatedly insisted the official cash rate isn’t likely to rise until 2024 at the earliest.

But it seems the banks don’t believe them. The banks think it’ll happen sooner.

CBA, for example, is currently predicting the RBA will increase the official cash rate in May 2023, while Westpac is predicting a rate hike in March 2023 – both well before the RBA’s 2024 timeline.

Given that’s about 18 months away, the major banks are now adjusting the fixed rates on fixed terms of 2-years and longer, in order to head off the expected rise in their funding costs.

“Lenders are scrambling to lift fixed rates before they start to feel the margin squeeze,” explains Canstar finance expert Steve Mickenbecker.

“Borrowers shouldn’t be so complacent as they must expect rises inside two years, and the closer they get to that point, the less attractive the fixed rates alternative will be.

“They may want to consider fixing their interest rate for three years or longer, while the going is still good.”

Variable interest rates cut

Interestingly, a number of the banks – including CBA and ING – simultaneously slashed interest rates on some of their variable-rate home loans this week.

And CBA even cut their 1-year fixed rate by 0.1% (for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest).

So why did they do this when (longer-term) fixed rates are going up?

Well, aggressively competing for customers on variable-rate mortgages (and 1-year fixed) makes sense for lenders when a cash rate hike is predicted to be at least 18 months away.

They can always increase their variable rates when needed, but they can’t do the same for borrowers locked in on longer-term fixed-rate mortgages.

So what’s next?

As mentioned above, when the big banks make a move, it’s not uncommon for other lenders to follow suit – as seen with ING this week.

So if you’ve been on the fence about fixing your rate, it’s definitely worth getting in touch with us sooner rather than later.

We can run you through a number of different options, including fixing your interest rate for two, three, four or five years, or just fixing a part of your mortgage (but not all of it).

If you’d like to know more about this – or any other topics raised in this article – then please get in touch today.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.